Expert Week 1 NFL Picks
uk canada goose outlet Want to win your NFL pick ’em contest or confidence pool in 2018? The experts at TeamRankings have identified six games from the Week 1 slate you need to have on your radar screen. uk canada goose outlet
By considering not only how likely a team is to win, but also how canada goose jacket outlet popular of a pick it is, you will give yourself a much better chance to win a season and/or weekly prize in your football pool this year. TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in football pools. Last season, 81 percent of TeamRankings subscribers reported winning a prize in a football canada goose outlet in usa pick ’em contest. Check out their our NFL Pick canada goose outlet ’em Pool Picks, NFL Survivor Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.
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Football pool strategy tips
Why Pick Popularity Matters: A Quick Primer
canada goose uk black friday The only way to win an NFL pick ’em contest is to outscore your opponents. And the only way to outscore your opponents is to get picks right that they get wrong. canada goose uk black friday
canadian goose jacket As a result, to maximize your edge in a football pool, you need to identify opportunities to “fade the public” in a way that increases your odds to win a prize. If your primary goal is to win weekly prizes in a season long pool or if you’re playing in a pool that only offers weekly prizes, making some canada goose outlet parka highly unpopular picks can greatly increase canada goose outlet black friday your expected profits. canadian goose jacket
canada goose clearance Pools that only offer end of season prizes, on the other hand, tend to reward canada goose outlet online uk more conservative pick making especially in the early canada goose outlet uk weeks. Still, picking the less popular team in a toss up game will give you an edge. Furthermore, if you find yourself trailing the leaders toward the end of the season, picking small underdogs that are underrated by canada goose outlet canada the public often gives you the best chance to catch up. canada goose clearance
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canada goose store This week’s analysis of win odds and pick popularity yields six picks of particular interest. However, we are not saying you should make all six of these of these picks. The best picks for your specific pool depend on a number of different strategy factors, such as the size of your pool; whether it uses confidence points; and whether it offers season prizes, weekly prizes, or both. canada goose store
We built our Football Pick ’em Picks product to do all this pick optimization work for you, but regardless of whether you use our tools, the six games below should be on your radar when you start making your Week 1 picks in game winner based NFL pools.
Note: Win odds and projected pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. Our Football Pick ’em Picks product updates multiple times daily with the latest information.
Big Favorite At canada goose outlet toronto factory A Reasonable Price
In Week 1, the betting markets favor six teams to canada goose outlet store uk win by six points or more, with each team having win canada goose outlet odds in the 70 80 percent range. Bigger favorites are almost universally overrated by the public for two reasons. First, many people assume these games are “locks” for the favorites, when in reality a four in five or seven in 10 chance to win is far from a lock. Second, many people can’t imagine that picking a larger favorite to lose would ever be a sound strategy in pools, when in reality, it sometimes is. Out of this week’s safest picks, though, Baltimore looks like the most fairly valued of the bunch. The Ravens have 73 percent win odds as a seven point Vegas favorite and are being picked by 89 percent of the public. That spread between pick popularity and canada goose outlet nyc win odds canada goose outlet sale isn’t too bad for a TD favorite. So, if you want to make a big upset call this week, do not make it the Bills. You can take less risk for more potential reward with other upset picks.
Denver is a team with a tarnished image after a 5 11 finish and horrible quarterback play last season. However, both our NFL projections and the betting markets expect the Broncos to improve by a couple wins this year. Seattle is just the opposite case, a team with a celebrated QB and strong public brand that’s expected to get worse in 2018. Such context often presents a nice contrarian pick opportunity, but the icing on the cake here is that Denver is actually favored to win this game by a field goal. Given the Broncos’ 60 percent win odds and only 53 percent pick popularity, it would be silly to pick the Seahawks if their popularity in your pool lines up with the official canada goose outlet national average.
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canada goose coats on sale This one is as clear cut as they come. The game has a line of (Pick), meaning that neither team is favored by the betting markets, yet over 70 percent of the public is picking Arizona to win. We’re fairly high on Arizona’s prospects for improvement this year, but there is basically no way that the Vegas line is underestimating canada goose outlet uk sale the Cardinals’ win odds in this game by 20 percent. The public is biased. With rare exceptions, picking the canada goose black friday sale less popular team in a coin flip game will almost canada goose outlet new york city always give you an incremental edge in your pool, and the popularity difference here https://www.canadagooseisverige.com is stark. If these numbers hold, Washington is the obvious play. canada goose coats on sale
Wow, does the public hate Miami this week. The Dolphins are the slightest of underdogs at home, yet nearly 80 percent of pick ’em entries have Tennessee winning. To put that in perspective, the Titans, a one point Vegas favorite, are nearly as popular a pick this week as the Rams, a four point favorite. With close to a 50/50 shot to win, Miami deserves consideration as a pick in larger pools with season prizes. However, if your primary goal is to win a weekly prize, you should almost always pick the Dolphins here.
Canada Goose Parka It’s not as good an opportunity as Miami the Falcons are a riskier pick (45 percent win odds, vs. 48 percent for Miami) and more popular (25 percent picked vs. 20 percent for Miami) but Atlanta still qualifies as a solid fade the public play. The public tends to hold last year’s Super Bowl champion in very high regard, and that often creates a value opportunity in Week 1. (You may remember what happened to the 2017 Super Bowl champion Patriots in their home opener against the Chiefs last year.) 2018 is no exception, especially with the Eagles battling a host of injury issues. As a 2.5 point underdog, Atlanta still may be a bit too risky of a pick this early on in smaller season prize pools, but the Falcons look like a great option to increase your edge in one week contests. Canada Goose Parka
canada goose uk shop You wouldn’t want to make this pick in a typical season prize pool, but the most underrated team in pick ’em contests this week is the doormat of the NFL’s past couple seasons, the Cleveland Browns. It should surprise no one that the overwhelming canada goose outlet reviews majority of the canada goose factory outlet public thinks that Pittsburgh is going to win this game, but Pittsburgh’s pick popularity 90 percent is extremely high given that the Steelers are only 3.5 point Vegas canada goose outlet online favorites. That means by picking the Browns, you have nearly a 35 percent chance to gain ground on almost your entire pool, which is a huge reward. In a one week pool (especially a large one), or in pool formats canada goose outlet jackets where picking all favorites but making one big differentiating upset pick makes sense, the Browns offer great value. canada goose uk shop
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buy canada goose jacket Which Of These Six Picks Should You Make? buy canada goose jacket
Canada Goose Coats On Sale Maybe all, maybe some, maybe just canada goose outlet store one. We’re not dodging the question. The reality is, it takes a lot of math to get to the right answer. Canada Goose Coats On Sale
Canada Goose Outlet We built our Football Pick ’em Picks product to do all the number crunching for you. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it customizes weekly pick recommendations to give you the biggest edge. We use data from national pick ’em contests to estimate pick popularity for every team. We canada goose outlet shop compare a team’s pick popularity to its win odds (or spread cover odds) to determine if it’s being underrated or overrated by the public. Finally, we use algorithms to identify the exact set of picks each week that offers the best risk vs. reward profile for your pool Canada Goose Outlet.